Rubbing Shoulders with A Murderer

In a great article published by Now Lebanon, Sarkozy elevates an assassin to new heights that should never be. In fact, Sarkozy will host Bashar El Assad on July 14 in Paris. Unless, Sarkozy is inviting the Butcher of Syria for reprimanding him of his actions and murders in Lebanon, there is no excuse for having him over at the Elysee.
What is Sarkozy thinking? Does he really believe that he can reverse a brutal dictator to an honest statesman? This is a despicable act that should never be. Shame on the French President for hosting the most barbaric and untruthful man in the Arab world.

P.S. A Jewish friend who belongs to the Tribe alluded to the fact that Sarkozy was inviting Bashar to sell him a few Mirage that Israel would take care of shooting down so that Bashar would even buy more. According to him, Sarkozy is inviting Bashar so he could get something out of him. It surely is not a free ride.

The Day After

Although the events in Lebanon are nearing their end (for now) and after the cabinet revoked its decisions, the political fall-outs and repercussions are multiple and it may be time to reflect on some of the consequences of the last conflict.

1- Any government decision that Hezbollah doesn't like or cannot get overcome via a political process, Hezbollah will take it up to the streets. It doesn't take rocket science to figure it out. They tried it and found that it works. Why not try again? There will undoubtedly be a honeymoon period that might culminate in the election of a President, but eventually good times will lapse.
2- The Army has proved it cannot function in critical situations involving internal strife no matter how much arms the US give it. It could never defend us in fear of being split.
3- Hatred and revenge are now planted for another generation in Lebanese minds of all sects.
4- Lebanese citizens outside of the Hezbollah sphere will now try to obtain arms to defend their own backyards in the next round of fighting.
5- Hezbollah's next move might be to take on the Army as it will be the one that will crumble the House of Cards
6- The future looks grim for Lebanon.
7- The only way for Hezbollah to collapse is from within. Shia who are fed up with Hezbollah vs shia who are pumped up with Hezbollah.

Read the excellent article in al-hayat about the future of Lebanon.

A Nation That Exists On Paper Only

The latest events in Lebanon have proven that Hezbollah rules undeniably the country. Whether it is by proxy for Iran and/or Syria is besides the point. What is critical though is that the Lebanese Army could not protect its citizens and was watching on the sidelines as the Hezbollah fighters were doing their dirty jobs.

In a country where the average citizen has no protection whatsoever from the National Army and its Security forces, then the country ceases to exist. It is along those lines that I proclaim Lebanon as a country on paper only.

I don't care if the unity of the Army and its various confessions are at risk. We need protection. If the Army's constitution is so fragmentary that it can never guarantee itself as a protector for its citizens, then it better ceases to exist and declare that it is really a useless body that cannot fulfill the function it was assigned to undertake.

Yes, Hezbollah is at fault and would have confronted the Army. But by having the Army behave as a sitting duck, Hezbollah is getting stronger and motivated to repeat its massacre and humiliation of Lebanon.

General Suleiman has proven that if he were to assume the presidency, he would be yet another Emile Lahoud or another Rachid Karameh with a motto of "Never Use the Army" and "Let the Citizen Pay the Price". Being a soldier and officer in the Army comes with its own risk....except of course if you're in the Lebanese Army in which case you can have your cake and eat it too.

I so much relate to Kurt Vonnegut and feel as "A Man Without a Country".

Pressure is Building up on Lebanon

With Hezbollah acquiring more weapons than ever, it's not rocket science to anticipate that such massive weaponry will not rust in Hezbollah dudgeons. Undoubtedly, they will be put to practice to ensure that Iran and Syria will harvest their fruits and from a military standpoint, to assess the efficacy of these weapons by the ones who built them.

The straightforward implication then is that Israel and Hezbollah will clash again when the time is ripe for such a military maneuver. Indeed, both sides are preparing themselves for the ultimate confrontation. Hezbollah needs to justify its accumulation of weapons by using them and Israel has to prove to its citizens and the world that it remains the dominant force in the Middle East.

Sadly, the war will be fought in Lebanon, simply because that's where the weapons are and that's where they will be used from to fight Israel. In other words, more destruction and death of innocent civilians are looming over Lebanon since Hezbollah's tactics are to hide behind "innocent civilians". In the absence of any revolt from such civilians, the families of Hezbollah fighters-not the fighters themselves- and any of those caught in the middle will suffer and perish. Briefly, a grandiose repetition of the July 2006 war.

Add more fuel to fire with the Zawahiri statement that Lebanon will play a pivotal role in the Islamists' fight against the "Crusaders and Jews." Whereas most likely this crusade is aimed at the UNIFIL in the South of Lebanon where the Hizbollah fighter and Israelis will meet their respective fates, one cannot rule out that Sunnis will enter the combat in a complex triumvirate battle involving Shiites, Sunnis and Israel while the UNIFIL takes cover.

What is the timing of the Mother of all Battles? Undoubtedly, it will be linked to external political events definitely not related to the political crisis in Lebanon, which is only an undercover for the battle and perhaps its precipitating factor. Deadlines on the horizon could be the US presidential elections (i.e. if McCain wins) or the serious implementation of the Hariri tribunal if Syria is named as the perpetrator of the Hariri crime or even mere international pressure mounting on Iran to stop its nuclear proliferation program.

Until such a time, the Lebanese will be busy electing a President.

Drums of War and Peace

Surely, the dispatch of the USS Cole off the Lebanese Coast has put March 8 on the defensive, with the most ironic statement coming from Walid Mouallem claiming that the US ships obstruct a solution to the Lebanese problem. Either, Mr. Moallem believes that world politicians are actually stupid enough to take his comment seriously or the syrian regime is cornered one more time with their king and queen begging for mercy and help. 

What will this move from President Bush aim to accomplish?

1- A US engagement in Lebanon is not an option as it needs to involve Congress and everybody knows that with Iraq and Afghanistan, the US has its hands full. 

2- If this move is just for show, then it has no bearing whatsoever on regional politics. The time for show is long gone, action is all what's needed.

3- Another possibility is that it aims to evacuate US nationals in preparation of an Israeli strike on Hizbollah. As much as this would be music to the ears of many in the Middle East, Israel may not be quite ready yet for another war, especially in light of the recent Israeli report on the 2006 summer war, where Olmert has swept multiple blows.

4- The US move may just be aimed at putting the USS Cole in the vicinity of syria, a show of pressure on the Assad regime.

5- Yet one more hypothesis is that the repositioning of the USS Cole and its satellite ships, is in anticipation of a Hezbollah response to the escalated violence in Gaza.

Most likely, the US move coupled with the Arab countries advise to pull out their nationals from Lebanon is nothing but a coup aimed at forcing the downfall of the March summit in Syria, maybe with the hope of forcing Assad, Mouallem and their gang to shiver and stop acting as if they rule the Arab street.

Revolution #9

The Lebanese have always taken pride in being the cream of the Arab world, namely because of the civil liberties, freedom of press, loose practice of religion and relaxed atmosphere. Lebanon has produced a number of high profile intellectuals recognized worldwide for their various endeavors such as Gibran Khalil Gebran, Charles Malik, Edouard Saouma, Rafik Hariri etc.. Most importantly, Lebanon has significantly contributed to the educated workforce of the Arab world as in Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Qatar. So the Lebanese, from all religious sects are essentially smart people. 

The burning question is how can the people of Lebanon accept to live under such ruthless and powerful political manipulation of leaders who seek the destruction of Lebanon? Why don't the Lebanese revolt?

The situation is obviously becoming ridiculous and nowhere near of getting solved. The longer it drags, the more it gets manipulated by exterior forces to some other nation's benefit. 

It's about time that the Lebanese take up the streets and prosecute those who are pulling the strings. What will it take to bring the Lebanese up to political enlightenment? More misery? More war? More foolish leaders or Godot?

The Lebanese need to take control of their lives and destiny by marching as a million individuals to uproot those responsible for their misery, otherwise Lebanon, not Israel, will soon be wiped off the map.

A US Presidential Candidate for Lebanon?

I just can't help but comment on the dichotomy of the US presidential candidates with respect to Lebanon. It is widely believed and commented on in other blogs that McCain would serve better Lebanon's interests than either Hilary Clinton or Barrack Obama.  

McCain is regarded as a hawk who's been through the Vietnam war and understands the politics of the autocratic and despotic syrian regime. He is not likely to be intimated by neither the Syrian nor Iranian rulers. On the other hand, the Democrats, being more liberals and wanting always to give peace a chance, are likely to cut deals with Syria and Iran at the expense of Lebanon.
The bottom line question is: Who would be better for Lebanon? David Kenner addresses this question very eloquently in this article on the Now Lebanon web site. However, no compelling evidence or opinion is given to favor either candidate. The bottom line is that all 3 candidates will be bad for Lebanon in the sense that they will put Israel on a golden platter before caring an inch about Lebanon, essentially because the Jewish lobby is so powerful the US and to a large extent controls US politics.

An American friend of mine, very Republican and deeply knowledgeable about foreign policy, keeps telling me:"Why should we care about Lebanon? What is Lebanon to us ? You guys were better off under syrian rule. At least you could go and visit your family."

The painful truth is that he is absolutely right and unless we, Lebanese, find a Lebanese solution to our problems, we will be treading water and keep looking for the US candidate that is best for us. Unless we put put our fate in our own hands and force our leaders to take on painful and dangerous decisions, we would still be waiting for Godot.