The Day After

Although the events in Lebanon are nearing their end (for now) and after the cabinet revoked its decisions, the political fall-outs and repercussions are multiple and it may be time to reflect on some of the consequences of the last conflict.

1- Any government decision that Hezbollah doesn't like or cannot get overcome via a political process, Hezbollah will take it up to the streets. It doesn't take rocket science to figure it out. They tried it and found that it works. Why not try again? There will undoubtedly be a honeymoon period that might culminate in the election of a President, but eventually good times will lapse.
2- The Army has proved it cannot function in critical situations involving internal strife no matter how much arms the US give it. It could never defend us in fear of being split.
3- Hatred and revenge are now planted for another generation in Lebanese minds of all sects.
4- Lebanese citizens outside of the Hezbollah sphere will now try to obtain arms to defend their own backyards in the next round of fighting.
5- Hezbollah's next move might be to take on the Army as it will be the one that will crumble the House of Cards
6- The future looks grim for Lebanon.
7- The only way for Hezbollah to collapse is from within. Shia who are fed up with Hezbollah vs shia who are pumped up with Hezbollah.

Read the excellent article in al-hayat about the future of Lebanon.