Pressure is Building up on Lebanon

With Hezbollah acquiring more weapons than ever, it's not rocket science to anticipate that such massive weaponry will not rust in Hezbollah dudgeons. Undoubtedly, they will be put to practice to ensure that Iran and Syria will harvest their fruits and from a military standpoint, to assess the efficacy of these weapons by the ones who built them.

The straightforward implication then is that Israel and Hezbollah will clash again when the time is ripe for such a military maneuver. Indeed, both sides are preparing themselves for the ultimate confrontation. Hezbollah needs to justify its accumulation of weapons by using them and Israel has to prove to its citizens and the world that it remains the dominant force in the Middle East.

Sadly, the war will be fought in Lebanon, simply because that's where the weapons are and that's where they will be used from to fight Israel. In other words, more destruction and death of innocent civilians are looming over Lebanon since Hezbollah's tactics are to hide behind "innocent civilians". In the absence of any revolt from such civilians, the families of Hezbollah fighters-not the fighters themselves- and any of those caught in the middle will suffer and perish. Briefly, a grandiose repetition of the July 2006 war.

Add more fuel to fire with the Zawahiri statement that Lebanon will play a pivotal role in the Islamists' fight against the "Crusaders and Jews." Whereas most likely this crusade is aimed at the UNIFIL in the South of Lebanon where the Hizbollah fighter and Israelis will meet their respective fates, one cannot rule out that Sunnis will enter the combat in a complex triumvirate battle involving Shiites, Sunnis and Israel while the UNIFIL takes cover.

What is the timing of the Mother of all Battles? Undoubtedly, it will be linked to external political events definitely not related to the political crisis in Lebanon, which is only an undercover for the battle and perhaps its precipitating factor. Deadlines on the horizon could be the US presidential elections (i.e. if McCain wins) or the serious implementation of the Hariri tribunal if Syria is named as the perpetrator of the Hariri crime or even mere international pressure mounting on Iran to stop its nuclear proliferation program.

Until such a time, the Lebanese will be busy electing a President.