The Day After

Although the events in Lebanon are nearing their end (for now) and after the cabinet revoked its decisions, the political fall-outs and repercussions are multiple and it may be time to reflect on some of the consequences of the last conflict.

1- Any government decision that Hezbollah doesn't like or cannot get overcome via a political process, Hezbollah will take it up to the streets. It doesn't take rocket science to figure it out. They tried it and found that it works. Why not try again? There will undoubtedly be a honeymoon period that might culminate in the election of a President, but eventually good times will lapse.
2- The Army has proved it cannot function in critical situations involving internal strife no matter how much arms the US give it. It could never defend us in fear of being split.
3- Hatred and revenge are now planted for another generation in Lebanese minds of all sects.
4- Lebanese citizens outside of the Hezbollah sphere will now try to obtain arms to defend their own backyards in the next round of fighting.
5- Hezbollah's next move might be to take on the Army as it will be the one that will crumble the House of Cards
6- The future looks grim for Lebanon.
7- The only way for Hezbollah to collapse is from within. Shia who are fed up with Hezbollah vs shia who are pumped up with Hezbollah.

Read the excellent article in al-hayat about the future of Lebanon.

A Nation That Exists On Paper Only

The latest events in Lebanon have proven that Hezbollah rules undeniably the country. Whether it is by proxy for Iran and/or Syria is besides the point. What is critical though is that the Lebanese Army could not protect its citizens and was watching on the sidelines as the Hezbollah fighters were doing their dirty jobs.

In a country where the average citizen has no protection whatsoever from the National Army and its Security forces, then the country ceases to exist. It is along those lines that I proclaim Lebanon as a country on paper only.

I don't care if the unity of the Army and its various confessions are at risk. We need protection. If the Army's constitution is so fragmentary that it can never guarantee itself as a protector for its citizens, then it better ceases to exist and declare that it is really a useless body that cannot fulfill the function it was assigned to undertake.

Yes, Hezbollah is at fault and would have confronted the Army. But by having the Army behave as a sitting duck, Hezbollah is getting stronger and motivated to repeat its massacre and humiliation of Lebanon.

General Suleiman has proven that if he were to assume the presidency, he would be yet another Emile Lahoud or another Rachid Karameh with a motto of "Never Use the Army" and "Let the Citizen Pay the Price". Being a soldier and officer in the Army comes with its own risk....except of course if you're in the Lebanese Army in which case you can have your cake and eat it too.

I so much relate to Kurt Vonnegut and feel as "A Man Without a Country".

Pressure is Building up on Lebanon

With Hezbollah acquiring more weapons than ever, it's not rocket science to anticipate that such massive weaponry will not rust in Hezbollah dudgeons. Undoubtedly, they will be put to practice to ensure that Iran and Syria will harvest their fruits and from a military standpoint, to assess the efficacy of these weapons by the ones who built them.

The straightforward implication then is that Israel and Hezbollah will clash again when the time is ripe for such a military maneuver. Indeed, both sides are preparing themselves for the ultimate confrontation. Hezbollah needs to justify its accumulation of weapons by using them and Israel has to prove to its citizens and the world that it remains the dominant force in the Middle East.

Sadly, the war will be fought in Lebanon, simply because that's where the weapons are and that's where they will be used from to fight Israel. In other words, more destruction and death of innocent civilians are looming over Lebanon since Hezbollah's tactics are to hide behind "innocent civilians". In the absence of any revolt from such civilians, the families of Hezbollah fighters-not the fighters themselves- and any of those caught in the middle will suffer and perish. Briefly, a grandiose repetition of the July 2006 war.

Add more fuel to fire with the Zawahiri statement that Lebanon will play a pivotal role in the Islamists' fight against the "Crusaders and Jews." Whereas most likely this crusade is aimed at the UNIFIL in the South of Lebanon where the Hizbollah fighter and Israelis will meet their respective fates, one cannot rule out that Sunnis will enter the combat in a complex triumvirate battle involving Shiites, Sunnis and Israel while the UNIFIL takes cover.

What is the timing of the Mother of all Battles? Undoubtedly, it will be linked to external political events definitely not related to the political crisis in Lebanon, which is only an undercover for the battle and perhaps its precipitating factor. Deadlines on the horizon could be the US presidential elections (i.e. if McCain wins) or the serious implementation of the Hariri tribunal if Syria is named as the perpetrator of the Hariri crime or even mere international pressure mounting on Iran to stop its nuclear proliferation program.

Until such a time, the Lebanese will be busy electing a President.